The typical figure of everyday homicides per month in the country has fallen by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per recent administrative figures. Nevertheless, public safety specialists have warned that murder numbers could fail to signal improved national safety.
Significant Drop in Daily Averages
There was an mean of nearly 55 murders a day in last November as opposed to nearly 87 when the President took the leadership in September. This data was delivered by the head of the nation's federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.
“The result in murders that have been recorded over these past months is very important,” Sheinbaum remarked, noting that last month the smallest figure of murders were recorded for any November in the past 10 years.
Recent Context and Official Strategy
Intense cartel rivalries, alongside the government’s highly militarised efforts to combat the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in recent years. The rate reached a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the country’s national statistics agency.
That gave Mexico a homicide figure over 4x higher than the United States. However, killings have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 last year. The President has attributed her public safety strategy for an apparently more pronounced reduction in killings in the current year.
At a media briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader stated: “We have a plan, there is tracking of the strategy, and we have specific tracking town by town in some cases. The approach works. And we have to keep working at it daily.”
The central elements of Sheinbaum’s safety plan involve:
- Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
- Enhancing intelligence and investigation efforts.
- Enhanced collaboration between government agencies.
Expert Warnings and Data Limitations
However, public safety experts warned that using murder numbers to paint a picture of peace was misleading. This is particularly true in light of the uptick in different crimes such as forced disappearances.
“This would be excellent news if this were a drop, but I think we must not just concentrate on the homicide data and conclude: ‘Alright, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively positive.”
Per the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall declined by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year versus the same timeframe the previous year. But, disappearances have increased by 15% and in certain regions have surged by as much as 200%.
“Statistics on murders is not reliable for estimating the reality of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the will to accurately recognize and classify remains. Second, organized [criminals] … have the capability to hide violent acts through disappearances.”
Vargas added that using month-to-month averages of everyday killings was additionally an issue because it might hide periods when there were notably high numbers of killings.
“Employing the daily mean makes surges of violent crime invisible,” he said.
Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Progress
Where the administration can cite the success of its security plan is on detentions and seizures. Close to 40,000 people were detained between last October and this past November for serious offenses, according to government figures. Over 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tons of drugs intercepted.
“The former US president can't claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s extremely politically advantageous,” said Vargas.
Ongoing Violence and Societal Anger
But despite these actions, Mexico is still plagued by severe violence, with multiple states in the throes of cartel-fueled violence. In the previous month there was a high-profile assassination of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the past 12 months.
Weeks after, thousands of protesters protested in the capital and across the country to show their outrage at corruption and drug violence.
“The administration shares [data] in a way to construct a story of improvement. Politically it’s highly effective, socially it’s extremely questionable,” Vargas said.
