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Beijing has sent its maritime law enforcement into the waters of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past remote Japan's territory as China escalates strains over the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its ships carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Tokyo but also asserted as territory by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the recent developments occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has indicated it demands a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts the island as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “unification”. It has not ruled out the military option. Taiwan’s government and people categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the status quo without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, potentially involving the US and other allies including Japan, which has territory just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Defense Operations

In Taiwan, the military authorities said on Sunday morning that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was probably the coast guard, operating around the territory over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones flying between Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said China had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted Taiwan had dispatched military assets to track the developments. The island reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since Takaichi made her comments, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other powers, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards the island.